Dundalk 1-1 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Drogheda United at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Drogheda United encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Dundalk and Drogheda United meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division (matchday 3). This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Current Form

Dundalk's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Dundalk's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Drogheda United (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Drogheda United have posted 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Drogheda United are 0.70 PPG clear of Dundalk over their recent games (1.00 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Dundalk edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2024, ended Dundalk 0–0 Drogheda United — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus Drogheda United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dundalk 28% | Drogheda United 39%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dundalk surrender their half-time lead 57% of the time, while Drogheda United have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.83 xG and Drogheda United 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.858 / defence 1.150 | Drogheda United attack 0.953 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.062 / away 1.053. Data: built from Dundalk's last 1 games and Drogheda United's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Dundalk 24% | Draw 36% | Drogheda United 40%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 4.20 | Draw 2.80 | Drogheda United 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Drogheda United as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dundalk's last 10 home games and Drogheda United's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dundalk 20% (last 10 home games) | Drogheda United 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Dundalk 1 games, Drogheda United 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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