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Stalemate at Drogheda United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 9, as Drogheda United and Bohemians drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. It was 0-0 at the break. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 0.69 xG and Bohemians 0.97 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bohemians landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.84 / defence 0.89 against Bohemians attack 1.08 / defence 0.62, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 24% | Draw 37% | Bohemians 39%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 47%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 67% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 72% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.22 PPG, Bohemians 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.

In-Play Signals

Bohemians controlled the ball (68%). That matched the side the model favoured, and they could not turn the territory into the projected win. Bohemians shot more often (14 to 13, 3 on target). The game stayed goalless into the break before it came to life.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights

📊 Statistics