🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Bohemians at 36%, yet in-form Shelbourne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Shelbourne make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Bohemians (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.

Shelbourne have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Shelbourne away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Shelbourne arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Bohemians, 1 for Shelbourne and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 47% versus Shelbourne 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bohemians 40% | Shelbourne 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.18 xG and Shelbourne 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.068 / defence 1.000 | Shelbourne attack 1.169 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 0.954. Data: 70 Bohemians games / 70 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 36% | Draw 31% | Shelbourne 33%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Shelbourne 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shelbourne (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 30% | Shelbourne 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights