Derry City 1-2 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derry City host Waterford at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Derry City — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derry City have posted 4W 5D 1L at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Derry City are significantly better at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Waterford's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Derry City at 1.00 PPG versus Waterford's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Derry City have won 2, Waterford 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Derry City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Derry City in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Waterford in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 49% versus Waterford 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 43% | Waterford 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.51 xG and Waterford 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 0.985 / defence 0.883 | Waterford attack 1.216 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 0.956. Waterford have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 1.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Derry City games / 38 Waterford games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Derry City 48% | Draw 26% | Waterford 26%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Waterford 3.85. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Derry City 60% | Waterford 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 48% | Draw 26% | Waterford 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Derry City 1.51 / Waterford 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 0.985 / def 0.883 | Waterford attack 1.216 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.341 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Derry City (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Waterford xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Waterford kick off?
Derry City vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 28 February 2025 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Waterford?
Derry City 1 - 2 Waterford.
Where is Derry City vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Waterford part of?
Derry City vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 48% chance of winning, Waterford a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Derry City and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Waterford?
Record (2 meetings): Derry City 2W | Draws 0 | Waterford 0W.
What form are Derry City and Waterford in?
Derry City (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derry City's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Waterford's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (38/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.87
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.54
1.03
Waterford xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
6%
17.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Derry City and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Derry City and 1.03 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Derry City have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 15W 13D 9L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Waterford's form line: 14W 6D 17L from 37 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derry City on 1.57 PPG, Waterford on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Derry City have posted 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (9W 6D 3L).
On the road, Waterford have gone 6W 2D 10L from 18 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derry City are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.22 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Waterford in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 15W 13D 9L in their last 37 games (1.57 PPG), while Waterford have gone 14W 6D 17L in their last 37 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Waterford away?
Derry City's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.83 PPG; Waterford away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Derry City or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Waterford in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 14 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2025, when Derry City won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derry City's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Derry City
2
Draws
3
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 5, Waterford have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2026, when Waterford 2-2 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Waterford?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derry City see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 67%, Waterford 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derry City) and 50% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Waterford in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Derry City's recent matches and 39% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derry City's recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Waterford tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Waterford in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Derry City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Derry City 1-2 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.51 xG and Waterford 1.03 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Waterford outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Waterford attack 1.22 / defence 1.14, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 48% | Draw 26% | Waterford 26%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Waterford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 43%, Waterford 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.57 PPG, Waterford 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waterford win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.