Derry City 2-1 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs Sligo Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sligo Rovers make the trip to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium to face Derry City in Premier Division (matchday 1). The match kicks off on Friday 6 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Derry City's record over their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Derry City have posted 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sligo Rovers away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Derry City. A 0.70 PPG lead over Sligo Rovers (2.20 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Derry City's last 10 home games and Sligo Rovers's last 10 away games) — Derry City have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sligo Rovers in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Derry City, 2 for Sligo Rovers and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended Derry City 1–0 Sligo Rovers — a Derry City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 53% versus Sligo Rovers 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 43% | Sligo Rovers 50%). Note also that Sligo Rovers surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Derry City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 53% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.43 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.086 / defence 0.976 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.043 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.010. Data: built from Derry City's last 36 games and Sligo Rovers's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Derry City 45% | Draw 28% | Sligo Rovers 26%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.20 | Draw 3.54 | Sligo Rovers 3.80. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Derry City 70% (last 10 home games) | Sligo Rovers 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Derry City 36 games, Sligo Rovers 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 1 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 45% | Draw 28% | Sligo Rovers 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Derry City 1.43 / Sligo Rovers 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.086 / def 0.976 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.043 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Derry City (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Sligo Rovers xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derry City vs Sligo Rovers FAQs
What time does Derry City vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Derry City vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 6 February 2026 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
Derry City 2 - 1 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Derry City vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Derry City vs Sligo Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 1) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 45% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Derry City and Sligo Rovers will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Derry City vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Derry City's attack rating (1.09) and Sligo Rovers's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (1.04x) against Derry City's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Derry City's last 36 games and Sligo Rovers's last 36, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
45%
2.20
28%
3.54
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.46
1.03
Sligo Rovers xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
6%
15.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derry City vs Sligo Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Derry City and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Derry City and 1.03 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Derry City have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 32W 22D 18L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 24W 18D 30L from 72 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Derry City against 1.25 for Sligo Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Derry City have posted 1.83 PPG from their last 36 home games (18W 12D 6L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 10W 8D 18L from their last 36 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derry City are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.14 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Derry City (Home) vs Sligo Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derry City
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Derry City vs Sligo Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Derry City and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 32W 22D 18L in their last 72 games (1.64 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 18D 30L in their last 72 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Derry City's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.83 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Derry City or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Derry City and Sligo Rovers, the earliest from July 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won Derry City 3-0 Sligo Rovers on 22 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Derry City
3
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Derry City vs Sligo Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Sligo Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Derry City have won 5, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Sligo Rovers 2-2 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Sligo Rovers?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 89% of those situations.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 64%, Sligo Rovers 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derry City) and 64% (Sligo Rovers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sligo Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derry City vs Sligo Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derry City and Sligo Rovers matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Derry City's games and 47% of Sligo Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Derry City and Sligo Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Derry City's matches and 64% of Sligo Rovers's.
Do Derry City and Sligo Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Derry City's recent matches and 78% of Sligo Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Sligo Rovers 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Sligo Rovers 2-1 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.43 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.03 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.09 / defence 0.98 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 45% | Draw 28% | Sligo Rovers 26%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 43%, Sligo Rovers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.64 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.