Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
32%
3.10
30%
3.33
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.68
1.40
Shamrock Rovers xG
Derry CityDrawShamrock Rovers
3.10
32%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.53
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
1.282
λ Away (xG)
1.398
Total xG
2.680
League avg home goals
1.473
League avg away goals
1.199
Derry City attack strength
1.069
Derry City defence strength
1.146
Shamrock Rovers attack strength
1.018
Shamrock Rovers defence strength
0.814
Data phase
CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A)
48 / 48