Derry City 1-1 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Derry City face Longford Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Derry City welcome Longford Town to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 10). Kick-off is Friday 7 May 2021 at 18:45 UK time.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Derry City have won 0, Longford Town 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Mar 2021, ended Derry City 0–2 Longford Town — a Longford Town win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.10 xG and Longford Town 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 0.896 / defence 1.305 | Longford Town attack 0.678 / defence 1.569. League average goals — home 0.781 / away 1.202. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.569 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derry City's projected output up. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.678 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Derry City's defence rating of 1.305 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Longford Town's projected output up. Data: built from Derry City's last 9 games and Longford Town's last 9.
Result probabilities: Derry City 34% | Draw 33% | Longford Town 33%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.91 | Draw 3.04 | Longford Town 3.06. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 10 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 May 2021 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 34% | Draw 33% | Longford Town 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Derry City 1.10 / Longford Town 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 0.896 / def 1.305 | Longford Town attack 0.678 / def 1.569 | league avg home 0.781 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Derry City (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Longford Town xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derry City vs Longford Town FAQs
What time does Derry City vs Longford Town kick off?
Derry City vs Longford Town kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Friday 7 May 2021 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Longford Town?
Derry City 1 - 1 Longford Town.
Where is Derry City vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Longford Town part of?
Derry City vs Longford Town is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 10) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 34% chance of winning, Longford Town a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Derry City and Longford Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Derry City vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Derry City's attack at 0.90x the league average against Longford Town's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Longford Town's attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Derry City's last 9 games and Longford Town's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
34%
2.91
33%
3.04
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.16
1.06
Longford Town xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derry City vs Longford Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Derry City and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Derry City and 1.06 for Longford Town, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Longford Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Pre-Season
Longford Town
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Derry City (Home) vs Longford Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derry City
Pre-Season
Longford Town
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from March 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 24 September 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Derry City have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Sep 2021, when Derry City won Derry City 3-0 Longford Town.
Derry City's record when hosting Longford Town specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Derry City
1
Draws
1
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Derry City vs Longford Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Longford Town?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Derry City have won 2, Longford Town have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Derry City and Longford Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 September 2021: Derry City 3-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Longford Town?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Derry City and Longford Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Derry City and Longford Town drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.10 xG and Longford Town 1.06 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 0.90 / defence 1.30 against Longford Town attack 0.68 / defence 1.57, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 34% | Draw 33% | Longford Town 33%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.