St Patrick's Athl. 1-2 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as St Patrick's Athl. take on Shamrock Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Shamrock Rovers at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 0.91 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.338 / defence 0.813 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.976 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 0.758 / away 1.192. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.338 — their λ of 0.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 9 St Patrick's Athl. games / 9 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 31% | Draw 36% | Shamrock Rovers 33%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 3.23 | Draw 2.78 | Shamrock Rovers 3.03. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 31% | Draw 36% | Shamrock Rovers 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 0.91 / Shamrock Rovers 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.338 / def 0.813 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.976 / def 0.895 | league avg home 0.758 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Shamrock Rovers xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 May 2021 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 2 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 31% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 33% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.34) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.24
36%
2.76
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
1.85
0.95
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.24
31%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 14.8 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.95 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out St Patrick's Athl. 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-2 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 0.91 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.95 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.34 / defence 0.81 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.98 / defence 0.90, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 31% | Draw 36% | Shamrock Rovers 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Shamrock Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.