Dundalk 0-1 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 7 May 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.91 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.021 / defence 1.157 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.004 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 0.778 / away 1.201. Data: 9 Dundalk games / 9 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 22% | Draw 32% | Sligo Rovers 46%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Sligo Rovers 2.17. Sligo Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sligo Rovers are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 7 May 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 22% | Draw 32% | Sligo Rovers 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Dundalk 0.91 / Sligo Rovers 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.021 / def 1.157 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.004 / def 1.142 | league avg home 0.778 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Sligo Rovers xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 7 May 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk 0 - 1 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 22% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dundalk and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dundalk's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (1.00x) against Dundalk's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
22%
4.53
32%
3.13
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.30
1.40
Sligo Rovers xG
4.53
22%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
5%
18.28
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 14.0 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.40 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Sligo Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won 0-5 on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
3
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 5, Sligo Rovers have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Sligo Rovers edge out Dundalk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Dundalk 0-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.91 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.40 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dundalk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.02 / defence 1.16 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.00 / defence 1.14, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 22% | Draw 32% | Sligo Rovers 46%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.