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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Cork City 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derry City beat Cork City 2-1 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.35 xG and Cork City 0.86 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against Cork City attack 0.84 / defence 1.19, drawn from 43/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derry City 47% | Draw 31% | Cork City 22%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 43%, Cork City 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derry City's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights