🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Derry City at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs Cork City encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 8 as Derry City welcome Cork City to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Derry City have posted 4W 5D 1L at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Derry City are significantly better at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Cork City — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Cork City haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Cork City have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derry City 1.00 PPG, Cork City 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Derry City have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Cork City have managed just 0 wins.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Derry City winning.

The historical record gives Derry City a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Derry City trading profile (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Cork City trading profile (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 49% versus Cork City 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 43% | Cork City 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.35 xG and Cork City 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 0.964 / defence 0.957 | Cork City attack 0.845 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.067. Data: 43 Derry City games / 6 Cork City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Derry City 47% | Draw 31% | Cork City 22%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Cork City 4.55. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Derry City 60% | Cork City 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights