Bohemians 2-2 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Shelbourne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Bohemians (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bohemians's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shelbourne have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shelbourne away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Shelbourne arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Shelbourne edge it 2 wins to 1, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Mar 2026, ended Bohemians 0–0 Shelbourne — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Shelbourne 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bohemians 42% | Shelbourne 38%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bohemians surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Shelbourne have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.16 xG and Shelbourne 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.873 / defence 1.016 | Shelbourne attack 1.285 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.143. Shelbourne have an above-average attack rating of 1.285, which lifts their away xG to 1.49. Data: built from Bohemians's last 50 games and Shelbourne's last 49.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 28% | Draw 28% | Shelbourne 44%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.52 | Draw 3.58 | Shelbourne 2.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 40% (last 10 home games) | Shelbourne 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 15 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Monday 4 May 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 28% | Draw 28% | Shelbourne 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Bohemians 1.16 / Shelbourne 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.873 / def 1.016 | Shelbourne attack 1.285 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Shelbourne xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs Shelbourne FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs Shelbourne kick off?
Bohemians vs Shelbourne kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 4 May 2026 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Bohemians 2 - 2 Shelbourne.
Where is Bohemians vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Shelbourne part of?
Bohemians vs Shelbourne is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 15) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 28% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bohemians and Shelbourne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bohemians vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (0.87) and Shelbourne's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (1.28x) against Bohemians's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 50 games and Shelbourne's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
28%
3.52
28%
3.58
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.66
1.49
Shelbourne xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
6%
15.68
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs Shelbourne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.49 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians come into this having played 72 games, going 26W 18D 28L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.69 PPG from 72 outings (32W 26D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Bohemians against 1.69 for Shelbourne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bohemians's home form reads 14W 8D 14L across their last 36 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.64 points per game from their last 36 away games (15W 14D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.22 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
Bohemians (Home) vs Shelbourne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Bohemians vs Shelbourne Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 32W 26D 14L in their last 72 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Shelbourne away?
Shelbourne's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.39 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won Shelbourne 0-3 Bohemians on 22 Jun 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians
5
Draws
3
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs Shelbourne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 2, Shelbourne have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Shelbourne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Bohemians 0-1 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 50%, Shelbourne 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bohemians) and 31% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians vs Shelbourne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians and Shelbourne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians's recent matches and 53% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians and Shelbourne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bohemians's recent games and 31% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Shelbourne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Bohemians's recent matches and 69% of Shelbourne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Shelbourne share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 15, as Bohemians and Shelbourne drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.16 xG and Shelbourne 1.49 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Shelbourne attack 1.28 / defence 0.92, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 28% | Draw 28% | Shelbourne 44%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, Shelbourne 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.33 PPG, Shelbourne 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.