Bohemians 3-2 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bohemians face Shamrock Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 4). Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Bohemians have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shamrock Rovers away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Bohemians against 1.40 for Shamrock Rovers. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Bohemians, 2 for Shamrock Rovers and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2025, ended Bohemians 1–2 Shamrock Rovers — a Shamrock Rovers win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Shamrock Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | Shamrock Rovers 50%). Note also that Shamrock Rovers surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Bohemians recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.13 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.927 / defence 0.950 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.016 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.010. Data: built from Bohemians's last 39 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 36% | Draw 36% | Shamrock Rovers 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.76 | Draw 2.81 | Shamrock Rovers 3.55. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bohemians 40% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Bohemians 39 games, Shamrock Rovers 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 4 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 36% | Draw 36% | Shamrock Rovers 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Bohemians 1.13 / Shamrock Rovers 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.927 / def 0.950 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.016 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Shamrock Rovers xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 27 February 2026 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Bohemians 3 - 2 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 4) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 36% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 0.93x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.02x) against Bohemians's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 39 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 38, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
36%
2.76
36%
2.81
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.11
0.97
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.97 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians's recent record stands at 26W 18D 28L from 72 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 36W 19D 17L across 72 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bohemians heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 14W 8D 14L from their last 36 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 15W 10D 11L across their last 36 away games, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.47 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Bohemians (Home) vs Shamrock Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 36W 19D 17L in their last 72 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.39 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers, the earliest from September 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 12 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Shamrock Rovers have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians
0
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 5, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 October 2026: Shamrock Rovers 2-1 Bohemians.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 50%, Shamrock Rovers 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bohemians) and 50% (Shamrock Rovers).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bohemians's games and 64% of Shamrock Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bohemians's recent games and 50% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Bohemians's recent matches and 61% of Shamrock Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Shamrock Rovers 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Shamrock Rovers 3-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.13 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.97 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 36% | Draw 36% | Shamrock Rovers 28%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, Shamrock Rovers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Bohemians winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.