Poisson model rates Bohemians at 45%, yet in-form Shelbourne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shelbourne vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Monday 22 June 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shelbourne have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tolka Park, Shelbourne have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Shelbourne's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Bohemians's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Statistical Overview
Shelbourne's cumulative Premier Division record this campaign: 15W 14D 7L from 36 matches. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.0 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 9 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.
On the season-wide numbers, Bohemians show 16W 6D 14L from 36 outings in Premier Division. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.1 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 13 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 36 games (19%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game.
Bohemians lead on clean sheets this season (13 vs 9). Penalty activity: Shelbourne 3/3 vs Bohemians 5/5 this season.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Bohemians — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 54% versus Bohemians 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shelbourne 38% | Bohemians 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.51 xG and Bohemians 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.984 / defence 1.147 | Bohemians attack 1.297 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.232. Bohemians have an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Shelbourne games / 58 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 31% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 45%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Bohemians 2.22. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shelbourne (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 60% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Monday 22 Jun 2026, 18:45 UTC • Managers: Shelbourne (D. Duff) | Bohemians (A. Reynolds) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D • Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W • Shelbourne home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | CS 3 • Bohemians away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 3 • Form edge: Shelbourne lead by 0.90 PPG (2.10 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (Shelbourne): Poisson xG of 1.51 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.50 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Bohemians): Poisson projects 1.83 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.8 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 3.34 (65% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 66% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Shelbourne on PPG but Poisson rates Bohemians higher (45% vs 31% for Shelbourne) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 31% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Shelbourne 1.51 / Bohemians 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.984 / def 1.147 | Bohemians attack 1.297 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Bohemians xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Bohemians kick off?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians kicked off at 18:45 on Monday 22 June 2026 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Shelbourne 0 - 3 Bohemians.
Where is Shelbourne vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Bohemians part of?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 31% chance of winning, Bohemians a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Shelbourne and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Shelbourne and Bohemians in?
• Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D • Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W • Shelbourne home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | CS 3 • Bohemians away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 3 • Form edge: Shelbourne lead by 0.90 PPG (2.10 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (Shelbourne): Poisson xG of 1.51 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.50 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Bohemians): Poisson projects 1.83 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~1.8 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 3.34 (65% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 66% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Shelbourne on PPG but Poisson rates Bohemians higher (45% vs 31% for Shelbourne) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture