Home Banker settles on whether a match is won by the home side. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.

Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The home win probability shown here is the sum of every scoreline where the home side finishes ahead. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.

20 fixtures met the criteria, led by Benfica vs Estoril at 83% home win probability.

Fixtures with a 55% or higher home win probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.

Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.

No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.