OFI 1-2 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates OFI at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as OFI face Kifisia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kifisia make the trip to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to face OFI in Super League 1 (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
OFI (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, OFI have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — OFI are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kifisia have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Kifisia away from home: 0W 2D 7L from their last 9 away games — 0.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for OFI against 0.40 for Kifisia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended OFI 0–0 Kifisia — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
OFI — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Kifisia — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 45% versus Kifisia 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 35% | Kifisia 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.77 xG and Kifisia 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.749 / defence 0.894 | Kifisia attack 0.610 / defence 1.495. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.281. OFI's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.77. Kifisia's defence rating of 1.495 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing OFI's projected output up. Kifisia's attack rating of 0.610 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Data: built from OFI's last 46 games and Kifisia's last 20.
Result probabilities: OFI 62% | Draw 25% | Kifisia 13%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.61 | Draw 4.04 | Kifisia 7.59. The model has a clear lean to OFI (62%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: OFI 50% (last 10 home games) | Kifisia 56% (last 9 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 62% | Draw 25% | Kifisia 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG OFI 1.77 / Kifisia 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.749 / def 0.894 | Kifisia attack 0.610 / def 1.495 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: OFI (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Kifisia xG
43%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Kifisia FAQs
What time does OFI vs Kifisia kick off?
OFI vs Kifisia kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Kifisia?
OFI 1 - 2 Kifisia.
Where is OFI vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Kifisia part of?
OFI vs Kifisia is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 21) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 62% chance of winning, Kifisia a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both OFI and Kifisia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will OFI vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
OFI's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Kifisia's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Kifisia's attack (0.61x) against OFI's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 46 games and Kifisia's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
62%
1.61
25%
4.04
13%
7.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
OFI xG
Total xG
2.47
0.70
Kifisia xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
7.59
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
31%
3.24
2%
44.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Kifisia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are OFI and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for OFI and 0.70 for Kifisia, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Kifisia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, OFI have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 8D 8L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Kifisia's form line: 2W 6D 12L from 20 games, 0.60 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, OFI are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kifisia.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 9 home games (3W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — OFI are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kifisia have gone 0W 2D 7L from their last 9 away games — 0.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OFI are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.00 scored and 2.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia in 60%.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Kifisia
Blended
OFI (Home) vs Kifisia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Blended
Kifisia
Blended
❓ OFI vs Kifisia Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Kifisia in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 4W 8D 8L in their last 20 games (1.00 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 2W 6D 12L in their last 20 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Kifisia away?
OFI's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.44 PPG; Kifisia away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kifisia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
OFI
3
Draws
2
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Kifisia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Kifisia?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 1, Kifisia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Kifisia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: OFI 2-0 Kifisia.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Kifisia?
Kifisia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 44%, Kifisia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (OFI) and 78% (Kifisia).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kifisia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Kifisia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Kifisia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of OFI's recent matches and 56% of Kifisia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OFI and Kifisia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of OFI's recent games and 78% of Kifisia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Kifisia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of OFI's recent matches and 100% of Kifisia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kifisia defy the odds to beat OFI 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kifisia beat OFI 1-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.77 xG and Kifisia 0.70 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kifisia outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.75 / defence 0.89 against Kifisia attack 0.61 / defence 1.50, drawn from 46/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 62% | Draw 25% | Kifisia 13%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Kifisia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 35%, Kifisia 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Kifisia's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Kifisia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kifisia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.