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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis finished level at 1-1 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.83 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.07 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.71 / defence 1.19 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.79 / defence 0.86, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 28% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 41%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 48%, Aris Thessalonikis 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Volos NFC's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights