Volos NFC 1-0 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Volos NFC face Apollon Smirnis.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Apollon Smirnis travel to Panthessaliko Stadio to take on Volos NFC in Super League 1 (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 19 January 2022 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Volos NFC have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Volos NFC's home record over their last 8 home games: 4W 0D 4L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Volos NFC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Apollon Smirnis stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Apollon Smirnis's away record over their last 6 away games: 0W 1D 5L (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.17 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Volos NFC) versus 0.70 (Apollon Smirnis). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Volos NFC, 0 for Apollon Smirnis and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2021, ended Volos NFC 3–1 Apollon Smirnis — a Volos NFC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (last 15 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Apollon Smirnis in-play tendencies (last 15 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 80% versus Apollon Smirnis 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 80% | Apollon Smirnis 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.91 xG and Apollon Smirnis 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 1.123 / defence 1.398 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.679 / defence 1.653. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.133. Apollon Smirnis's defence rating of 1.653 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Volos NFC's projected output up. Apollon Smirnis's attack rating of 0.679 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Volos NFC's defence rating of 1.398 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Apollon Smirnis's projected output up. Data: built from Volos NFC's last 16 games and Apollon Smirnis's last 15.
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 57% | Draw 22% | Apollon Smirnis 21%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 1.76 | Draw 4.51 | Apollon Smirnis 4.75. The model has a clear lean to Volos NFC (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Volos NFC's last 8 home games and Apollon Smirnis's last 6 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Volos NFC 75% (last 8 home games) | Apollon Smirnis 50% (last 6 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Apollon Smirnis | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 15 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 January 2022 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 57% | Draw 22% | Apollon Smirnis 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Volos NFC 1.91 / Apollon Smirnis 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 1.123 / def 1.398 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.679 / def 1.653 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Apollon Smirnis xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Volos NFC vs Apollon Smirnis FAQs
What time does Volos NFC vs Apollon Smirnis kick off?
Volos NFC vs Apollon Smirnis kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Wednesday 19 January 2022 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Apollon Smirnis?
Volos NFC 1 - 0 Apollon Smirnis.
Where is Volos NFC vs Apollon Smirnis being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Apollon Smirnis part of?
Volos NFC vs Apollon Smirnis is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 15) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 57% chance of winning, Apollon Smirnis a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Volos NFC and Apollon Smirnis will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Volos NFC vs Apollon Smirnis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 1.12x the league average against Apollon Smirnis's defence at 1.65x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Apollon Smirnis's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Volos NFC's last 16 games and Apollon Smirnis's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.51
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.98
1.07
Apollon Smirnis xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
15%
6.72
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
3%
31.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Volos NFC vs Apollon Smirnis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Apollon Smirnis expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.07 for Apollon Smirnis, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Apollon Smirnis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 3D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Apollon Smirnis sit at 0.60 PPG from 15 outings (1W 6D 8L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Volos NFC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Apollon Smirnis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Volos NFC's home form reads 2W 0D 4L across their last 6 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Apollon Smirnis have taken 0.17 points per game from their last 6 away games (0W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 0.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Apollon Smirnis's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Volos NFC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Apollon Smirnis are on 0.47 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Defensively: Apollon Smirnis in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
Volos NFC (Home) vs Apollon Smirnis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Volos NFC
Blended
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
❓ Volos NFC vs Apollon Smirnis Form FAQs
What form are Volos NFC and Apollon Smirnis in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 6D 8L in their last 15 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Apollon Smirnis away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.00 PPG; Apollon Smirnis away: 0.17 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Apollon Smirnis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Apollon Smirnis in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 16 April 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
1
Draws
0
Apollon Smirnis
Recent Meetings
❓ Volos NFC vs Apollon Smirnis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Apollon Smirnis?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Volos NFC have won 2, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Apollon Smirnis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 April 2022: Apollon Smirnis 1-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Apollon Smirnis?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Apollon Smirnis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Volos NFC at 83%, Apollon Smirnis at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Volos NFC and 67% for Apollon Smirnis. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Apollon Smirnis in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Apollon Smirnis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Volos NFC vs Apollon Smirnis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Volos NFC and Apollon Smirnis matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Volos NFC's games and 50% of Apollon Smirnis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Volos NFC and Apollon Smirnis matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Volos NFC's matches and 67% of Apollon Smirnis's.
Do Volos NFC and Apollon Smirnis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 67% of Apollon Smirnis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Volos NFC edge out Apollon Smirnis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Apollon Smirnis 1-0 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.91 xG and Apollon Smirnis 1.07 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Volos NFC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Apollon Smirnis landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 1.12 / defence 1.40 against Apollon Smirnis attack 0.68 / defence 1.65, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 57% | Draw 22% | Apollon Smirnis 21%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 80%, Apollon Smirnis 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Volos NFC arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. Form held, and they took the win. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.