Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 December 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 5W 2D 0L at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki — 2.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 2W 2D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.14 PPG. Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 1, Lamia 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Lamia trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 57% versus Lamia 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 64% | Lamia 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 0.97 xG and Lamia 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.950 / defence 0.782 | Lamia attack 0.653 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.254. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 14 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 14 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 42% | Draw 34% | Lamia 23%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Lamia 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Lamia's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 22% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 29%. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 43% | Lamia 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 42% | Draw 34% | Lamia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 29% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 0.97 / Lamia 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.950 / def 0.782 | Lamia attack 0.653 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Lamia xG
29%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 42% chance of winning, Lamia a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia?
Record (1 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 1W | Draws 0 | Lamia 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Lamia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 0.95x the league average against Lamia's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.8%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
42%
2.37
34%
2.90
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.4%
Home win
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
1.61
0.64
Lamia xG
2.37
42%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.40
71%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.9 | 12.8 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.4 | 12.4 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.6%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.64 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Olympiakos Piraeus have picked up 2.71 PPG on a 12W 2D 0L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamia's form line: 2W 5D 7L from 14 games, 0.79 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 2.43 PPG from 7 outings (5W 2D 0L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.93 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 12W 2D 0L in their last 14 games (2.71 PPG), while Lamia have gone 2W 5D 7L in their last 14 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Lamia away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.43 PPG; Lamia away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Lamia in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, Lamia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 43%, Lamia 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 43% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Lamia in 43%; Olympiakos Piraeus have failed to score in 29% of games; Lamia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 43% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 43% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Lamia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Lamia 1-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 0.97 xG and Lamia 0.64 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.95 / defence 0.78 against Lamia attack 0.65 / defence 0.98, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 42% | Draw 34% | Lamia 23%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 48% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 64%, Lamia 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.71 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.