Volos NFC 0-4 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Volos NFC welcome PAOK to Panthessaliko Stadio. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 January 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 5W 0D 4L at Panthessaliko Stadio — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Volos NFC are significantly better at Panthessaliko Stadio than their overall form suggests.
PAOK — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 3L across 8 road games this term (1.88 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PAOK are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Volos NFC register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, PAOK in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
PAOK trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Volos NFC 76% and PAOK 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Volos NFC 76% | PAOK 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.31 xG and PAOK 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 1.072 / defence 1.272 | PAOK attack 1.234 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 0.989 / away 1.135. PAOK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Volos NFC games / 17 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 28% | Draw 23% | PAOK 49%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | PAOK 2.04. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 67% | PAOK 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 28% | Draw 23% | PAOK 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Volos NFC 1.31 / PAOK 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 1.072 / def 1.272 | PAOK attack 1.234 / def 1.237 | league avg home 0.989 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: PAOK (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.78
PAOK xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs PAOK kick off?
Volos NFC vs PAOK kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Volos NFC 0 - 4 PAOK.
Where is Volos NFC vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs PAOK part of?
Volos NFC vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 28% chance of winning, PAOK a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Volos NFC and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Volos NFC and PAOK in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. PAOK (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 1.07x the league average against PAOK's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
28%
3.54
23%
4.31
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
3.09
1.78
PAOK xG
3.54
28%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
17%
5.94
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
5%
20.99
13%
7.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.78 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 6W 3D 8L from 17 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 11W 1D 5L across 17 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 4W 0D 4L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 5W 0D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.12 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and PAOK in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 6W 3D 8L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while PAOK have gone 11W 1D 5L in their last 17 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.50 PPG; PAOK away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and PAOK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2024, when PAOK won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
0
Draws
8
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 2, PAOK have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 62%, PAOK 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Volos NFC and 75% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Volos NFC's games and 62% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Volos NFC's matches and 75% of PAOK's.
Do Volos NFC and PAOK tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, PAOK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Volos NFC 0-4 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.31 xG and PAOK 1.78 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. PAOK outscored their 1.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 1.07 / defence 1.27 against PAOK attack 1.23 / defence 1.24, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 28% | Draw 23% | PAOK 49%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 76%, PAOK 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
PAOK's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.