Iraklis 1908 2-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Iraklis 1908 take on Levadiakos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos meet at Kaftanzoglio Stadio in Super League 1, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Iraklis 1908's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Iraklis 1908 have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Iraklis 1908 half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Iraklis 1908 40% | Levadiakos 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Iraklis 1908 20% | Levadiakos 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Iraklis 1908 1.08 xG and Levadiakos 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.699 / defence 1.225 | Levadiakos attack 0.845 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 0.976. Iraklis 1908's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Iraklis 1908 games / 31 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 34% | Draw 36% | Levadiakos 30%. Fair-value odds: Iraklis 1908 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Levadiakos 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Iraklis 1908 40% | Levadiakos 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Kaftanzoglio Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 34% | Draw 36% | Levadiakos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Iraklis 1908 1.08 / Levadiakos 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.699 / def 1.225 | Levadiakos attack 0.845 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.412 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Iraklis 1908 xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Levadiakos xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos kick off?
Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Kaftanzoglio Stadio.
What was the final score in Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos?
Iraklis 1908 2 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Kaftanzoglio Stadio.
What competition is Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos part of?
Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Iraklis 1908 a 34% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos in?
Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Iraklis 1908's attack rating (0.70) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.84x) against Iraklis 1908's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 5/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.98
36%
2.77
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Iraklis 1908 xG
Total xG
2.09
1.01
Levadiakos xG
2.98
34%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Iraklis 1908 and 1.01 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Iraklis 1908 have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 0W 3D 2L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos's form line: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games, 0.20 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.60 PPG for Iraklis 1908 against 0.20 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Iraklis 1908 are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.00 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos in 0%.
Last 5 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Iraklis 1908
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Iraklis 1908 have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Iraklis 1908
0
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos?
From 1 meetings on record, Iraklis 1908 have won 1, Levadiakos have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Iraklis 1908 2-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos?
Iraklis 1908 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Iraklis 1908 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Iraklis 1908) and 0% (Levadiakos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Iraklis 1908 and 20% for Levadiakos.
On the defensive side: Iraklis 1908 have failed to score in 60% of games; Levadiakos in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Iraklis 1908 home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Iraklis 1908 play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Iraklis 1908's recent matches and 0% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Iraklis 1908's recent games and 20% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Iraklis 1908 have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Iraklis 1908 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Levadiakos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Iraklis 1908 beat Levadiakos 2-0 at Kaftanzoglio Stadio, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Iraklis 1908 1.08 xG and Levadiakos 1.01 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Iraklis 1908 beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Levadiakos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Iraklis 1908 attack 0.70 / defence 1.23 against Levadiakos attack 0.84 / defence 1.09, drawn from 5/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Iraklis 1908 34% | Draw 36% | Levadiakos 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Iraklis 1908 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Iraklis 1908 20%, Levadiakos 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 20%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Iraklis 1908's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Levadiakos's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Iraklis 1908 0.60 PPG, Levadiakos 0.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Iraklis 1908 win broke the near-deadlock. Iraklis 1908 scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.