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Poisson model rates Iraklis 1908 at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Iraklis 1908 and Levadiakos meet at Kaftanzoglio Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Levadiakos have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Levadiakos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Levadiakos's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Iraklis 1908 1.27 xG and Levadiakos 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Levadiakos attack 1.023 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 0 Iraklis 1908 games / 26 Levadiakos games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 35% | Draw 31% | Levadiakos 34%. Fair-value odds: Iraklis 1908 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Levadiakos 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Iraklis 1908 are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Iraklis 1908 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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