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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PAOK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Aris Thessalonikis.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAOK beat Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 at Toumba Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.60 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.65 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.20 / defence 0.63 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.84 / defence 0.93, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAOK 60% | Draw 25% | Aris Thessalonikis 15%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 68%, Aris Thessalonikis 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAOK's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAOK 1.98 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights