Panserraikos 0-4 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Panserraikos face Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Atromitos travel to Dimotiko Stadio Serron to take on Panserraikos in Super League 1 (Relegation Group - 4). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Panserraikos — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Panserraikos's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Atromitos have recorded 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Atromitos have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Panserraikos at 1.60 PPG versus Atromitos's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Panserraikos, 2 for Atromitos and 5 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Feb 2026, ended Panserraikos 2–2 Atromitos — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Panserraikos trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Atromitos trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 49% versus Atromitos 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 59% | Atromitos 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 0.82 xG and Atromitos 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.762 / defence 1.292 | Atromitos attack 0.919 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.064. Panserraikos's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Panserraikos's defence rating of 1.292 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atromitos's projected output up. Data: built from Panserraikos's last 52 games and Atromitos's last 52.
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 22% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 45%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 4.55 | Draw 3.01 | Atromitos 2.23. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panserraikos 30% (last 10 home games) | Atromitos 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 4 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 22% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Panserraikos 0.82 / Atromitos 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.762 / def 1.292 | Atromitos attack 0.919 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Atromitos xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panserraikos vs Atromitos FAQs
What time does Panserraikos vs Atromitos kick off?
Panserraikos vs Atromitos kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Atromitos?
Panserraikos 0 - 4 Atromitos.
Where is Panserraikos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Atromitos part of?
Panserraikos vs Atromitos is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Group - 4) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 22% chance of winning, Atromitos a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Panserraikos and Atromitos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Panserraikos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Panserraikos's attack at 0.76x the league average against Atromitos's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Panserraikos's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Panserraikos's last 52 games and Atromitos's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
22%
4.55
33%
3.01
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.08
1.26
Atromitos xG
4.55
22%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
6%
16.11
20%
5.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 15.8 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panserraikos vs Atromitos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.26 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panserraikos come into this having played 61 games, going 16W 12D 33L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.26 PPG from 61 outings (20W 17D 24L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panserraikos on 0.98 PPG, Atromitos on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Panserraikos's home form reads 9W 8D 13L across their last 30 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 1.60 points per game from their last 30 away games (14W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Panserraikos are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.13 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Current Season
Atromitos
Current Season
Panserraikos (Home) vs Atromitos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panserraikos
Current Season
Atromitos
Current Season
❓ Panserraikos vs Atromitos Form FAQs
What form are Panserraikos and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 16W 12D 33L in their last 61 games (0.98 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 20W 17D 24L in their last 61 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Atromitos away?
Atromitos's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.17 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 21 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atromitos have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 May 2026, when Atromitos won Atromitos 6-0 Panserraikos.
Panserraikos's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Panserraikos
5
Draws
4
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Panserraikos vs Atromitos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Atromitos?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Panserraikos have won 0, Atromitos have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Atromitos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 May 2026: Atromitos 6-0 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 50%, Atromitos 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Panserraikos) and 50% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Panserraikos have failed to score in 40% of games; Atromitos in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panserraikos vs Atromitos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panserraikos and Atromitos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 47% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panserraikos and Atromitos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Panserraikos's recent games and 50% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Atromitos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 73% of Atromitos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atromitos run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Panserraikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Panserraikos 0-4 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Relegation Group - 4, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.82 xG and Atromitos 1.26 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Panserraikos fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Atromitos outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.76 / defence 1.29 against Atromitos attack 0.92 / defence 0.82, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 22% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 45%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 59%, Atromitos 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atromitos's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 0.98 PPG, Atromitos 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.