Larisa 1-1 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Larisa at 40%, yet in-form Kifisia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Larisa vs Kifisia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Group - 4 sees Kifisia travel to AEL FC Arena to take on Larisa. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 April 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Larisa have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Larisa's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at AEL FC Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Larisa are significantly better at AEL FC Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kifisia stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Kifisia have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kifisia are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Larisa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kifisia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Larisa, 0 for Kifisia and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Larisa in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kifisia in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 55% versus Kifisia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 41% | Kifisia 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 1.35 xG and Kifisia 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.776 / defence 1.262 | Kifisia attack 0.830 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.064. Larisa's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kifisia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.339 — this is suppressing Larisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Larisa games / 26 Kifisia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Larisa 40% | Draw 31% | Kifisia 29%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Kifisia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Larisa at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kifisia (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Larisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Larisa 60% | Kifisia 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Larisa vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 4 | Venue: AEL FC Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Larisa 40% | Draw 31% | Kifisia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Larisa 1.35 / Kifisia 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Larisa attack 0.776 / def 1.262 | Kifisia attack 0.830 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Larisa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Larisa xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Kifisia xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Larisa vs Kifisia kick off?
Larisa vs Kifisia kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at AEL FC Arena.
What was the final score in Larisa vs Kifisia?
Larisa 1 - 1 Kifisia.
Where is Larisa vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at AEL FC Arena.
What competition is Larisa vs Kifisia part of?
Larisa vs Kifisia is a Relegation Group - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Larisa vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Larisa a 40% chance of winning, Kifisia a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Larisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Larisa vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Larisa and Kifisia will score (BTTS).
Will Larisa vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Kifisia?
Record (2 meetings): Larisa 0W | Draws 2 | Kifisia 0W.
What form are Larisa and Kifisia in?
Larisa (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Kifisia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Larisa's attack at 0.78x the league average against Kifisia's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kifisia's attack versus Larisa's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Larisa Win
40%
2.49
31%
3.22
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Larisa xG
Total xG
2.47
1.11
Kifisia xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
7%
13.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Larisa vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Larisa and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Larisa and 1.11 for Kifisia, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Larisa vs Kifisia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Larisa's recent record stands at 4W 11D 14L from 29 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Kifisia, meanwhile, have gone 6W 11D 12L across 29 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Larisa on 0.79 PPG, Kifisia on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Larisa have managed 2W 6D 6L from 14 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kifisia's away record stands at 2W 6D 6L across 14 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Larisa are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.14 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Larisa
Current Season
Kifisia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Larisa and Kifisia in coming into this match?
Larisa have gone 4W 11D 14L in their last 29 games (0.79 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 6W 11D 12L in their last 29 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Larisa at home or Kifisia away?
Larisa's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Larisa at home: 0.86 PPG; Kifisia away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Larisa and Kifisia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Larisa's record when hosting Kifisia specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Larisa
3
Draws
1
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Kifisia?
From 4 meetings on record, Larisa have won 0, Kifisia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Larisa and Kifisia last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Kifisia 3-2 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between Larisa and Kifisia?
Kifisia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Larisa at 64%, Kifisia at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Larisa) and 64% (Kifisia).
On the defensive side: Kifisia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Larisa home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Larisa play Kifisia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Larisa's games and 71% of Kifisia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Larisa vs Kifisia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Larisa's recent games and 64% of Kifisia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Larisa and Kifisia tend to score early?
Larisa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Kifisia in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Larisa and Kifisia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Larisa and Kifisia finished level at 1-1 at AEL FC Arena, Relegation Group - 4, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.35 xG and Kifisia 1.11 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.78 / defence 1.26 against Kifisia attack 0.83 / defence 1.34, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Larisa 40% | Draw 31% | Kifisia 29%, with Larisa to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 41%, Kifisia 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Larisa's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Kifisia's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Larisa 0.79 PPG, Kifisia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.