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Poisson rates Atromitos at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs Larisa encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Group - 3 as Atromitos welcome Larisa to Peristeri Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters this season, Atromitos have posted 2W 4D 4L at Peristeri Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Larisa stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Larisa have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Atromitos carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Atromitos have won 0, Larisa 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Atromitos trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Larisa trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 43% versus Larisa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atromitos 39% | Larisa 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.20 xG and Larisa 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.909 / defence 1.077 | Larisa attack 0.728 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.064. Data: 52 Atromitos games / 26 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Atromitos 42% | Draw 34% | Larisa 24%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Larisa 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Atromitos at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 30% | Larisa 40% BTTS from recent games.

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