Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Olympiakos Piraeus face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus PAOK in Super League 1 (Championship Group - 4). Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 18:30 UK time.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAOK have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, PAOK have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 1.60 for PAOK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Olympiakos Piraeus, 4 for PAOK and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 May 2026, ended Olympiakos Piraeus 1–3 PAOK — a PAOK win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 39% versus PAOK 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 43% | PAOK 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.13 xG and PAOK 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.954 / defence 0.693 | PAOK attack 1.214 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. PAOK have an above-average attack rating of 1.214, which lifts their away xG to 0.90. Olympiakos Piraeus have a tight defence (rating 0.693), which is pulling PAOK's projected output down. Data: built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52 games and PAOK's last 52.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 39% | Draw 35% | PAOK 27%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.59 | Draw 2.89 | PAOK 3.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Olympiakos Piraeus 20% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Group - 4 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 39% | Draw 35% | PAOK 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.13 / PAOK 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.954 / def 0.693 | PAOK attack 1.214 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.90
PAOK xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK FAQs
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK is a Super League 1 fixture (Championship Group - 4) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 39% chance of winning, PAOK a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (0.95) and PAOK's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.21x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52 games and PAOK's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
39%
2.59
35%
2.89
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.02
0.90
PAOK xG
2.59
39%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.90 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 41W 13D 7L from 61 games, a 2.23 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 36W 11D 14L across 61 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.23 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 1.95 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 21W 7D 2L from their last 30 home games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 15W 6D 9L across their last 30 away games, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.61 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.92 scored and 0.95 conceded. PAOK's attacking output running into Olympiakos Piraeus's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; PAOK in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
PAOK
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus (Home) vs PAOK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
PAOK
Current Season
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK Form FAQs
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 41W 13D 7L in their last 61 games (2.23 PPG), while PAOK have gone 36W 11D 14L in their last 61 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or PAOK away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.33 PPG; PAOK away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, PAOK in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Olympiakos Piraeus
3
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3, PAOK have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 43%, PAOK 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 70% (PAOK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 63% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 70% of PAOK's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 80% of PAOK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Championship Group - 4, as Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.13 xG and PAOK 0.90 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.95 / defence 0.69 against PAOK attack 1.21 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 39% | Draw 35% | PAOK 27%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 43%, PAOK 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.23 PPG, PAOK 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.