AEK Athens FC 2-1 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allwyn Arena plays host to AEK Athens FC versus Panathinaikos in Super League 1, Championship Group - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
AEK Athens FC (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, AEK Athens FC have posted 9W 1D 0L at Allwyn Arena — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allwyn Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — AEK Athens FC are significantly better at Allwyn Arena than their overall form suggests.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Panathinaikos's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 1.90 for Panathinaikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — AEK Athens FC have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Panathinaikos in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: AEK Athens FC 4W, Panathinaikos 4W, 1D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Panathinaikos half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 33% versus Panathinaikos 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 43% | Panathinaikos 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.55 xG and Panathinaikos 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.326 / defence 0.707 | Panathinaikos attack 1.227 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Panathinaikos have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 0.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.707 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 AEK Athens FC games / 52 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 50% | Draw 29% | Panathinaikos 21%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Panathinaikos 4.76. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 30% | Panathinaikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Group - 4 | Venue: Allwyn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 50% | Draw 29% | Panathinaikos 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.55 / Panathinaikos 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.326 / def 0.707 | Panathinaikos attack 1.227 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Panathinaikos xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Allwyn Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos?
AEK Athens FC 2 - 1 Panathinaikos.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Allwyn Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos is a Championship Group - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 50% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos?
Record (9 meetings): AEK Athens FC 4W | Draws 1 | Panathinaikos 4W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AEK Athens FC's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.23x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.40
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.48
0.92
Panathinaikos xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
4%
23.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.92 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 36W 12D 13L from 61 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Panathinaikos, meanwhile, have gone 31W 17D 13L across 61 games — 1.80 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.97 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 1.80 for Panathinaikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 21W 4D 5L from 30 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panathinaikos's away record stands at 12W 9D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.41 scored and 0.98 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games; Panathinaikos in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Current Season
Panathinaikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 36W 12D 13L in their last 61 games (1.97 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 31W 17D 13L in their last 61 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Panathinaikos away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.23 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.50 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 4-0 on 18 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
4
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 5, Panathinaikos have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when AEK Athens FC 2-1 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 30%, Panathinaikos 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (AEK Athens FC) and 47% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 33%; Panathinaikos in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 50% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 47% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out Panathinaikos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Panathinaikos 2-1 at Allwyn Arena, Championship Group - 4, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.55 xG and Panathinaikos 0.92 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.33 / defence 0.71 against Panathinaikos attack 1.23 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 50% | Draw 29% | Panathinaikos 21%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 43%, Panathinaikos 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.97 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.