Olympiakos Piraeus 3-1 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Panetolikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos meet at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.30 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Panetolikos's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Olympiakos Piraeus have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 4 meetings, with Panetolikos managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2023, ended 6–1 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 41% versus Panetolikos 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 52% | Panetolikos 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.75 xG and Panetolikos 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.481 / defence 0.976 | Panetolikos attack 0.878 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.135. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.481 — their λ of 2.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Panetolikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 37 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 73% | Draw 19% | Panetolikos 9%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.37 | Draw 5.26 | Panetolikos 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.75 / 0.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.73 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Panetolikos 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 73% | Draw 19% | Panetolikos 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 60% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 2.75 / Panetolikos 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.481 / def 0.976 | Panetolikos attack 0.878 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.75
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Panetolikos xG
60%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 3 - 1 Panetolikos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 73% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 9% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos?
Record (4 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 4W | Draws 0 | Panetolikos 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Panetolikos (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.48) and Panetolikos's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.88x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 3-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
73%
1.38
19%
5.38
9%
11.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
3 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.75
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
3.73
0.97
Panetolikos xG
1.38
73%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
11.43
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
6%
15.69
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
1%
179.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 2.75 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.97 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 27W 11D 6L from 44 games, a 2.09 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 24L across 44 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 1.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panetolikos heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 15W 4D 3L from 22 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 4W 5D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.89 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 27W 11D 6L in their last 44 games (2.09 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 8W 12D 24L in their last 44 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Panetolikos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.23 PPG; Panetolikos away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 6-1 on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
1
Draws
0
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, Panetolikos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 2-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 41%, Panetolikos 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 54% (Panetolikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Panetolikos in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 59% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 54% of Panetolikos's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Panetolikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panetolikos 3-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 2.75 xG and Panetolikos 0.97 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.48 / defence 0.98 against Panetolikos attack 0.88 / defence 1.24, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 73% | Draw 19% | Panetolikos 9%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 52%, Panetolikos 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Panetolikos's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Panetolikos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.