PAOK 2-1 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face Panetolikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PAOK and Panetolikos meet at Stadio Toumbas in Super League 1, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Toumbas this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Panetolikos (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. PAOK's 2.00 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Panetolikos's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours PAOK, who have won 4 of the last 4 meetings against Panetolikos — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2022, ended 2–0 with PAOK winning.
The historical record gives PAOK a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 42% versus Panetolikos 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 51% | Panetolikos 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.14 xG and Panetolikos 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.108 / defence 0.677 | Panetolikos attack 0.831 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.149. Panetolikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing PAOK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. PAOK's defence rating of 0.677 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 PAOK games / 36 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 69% | Draw 23% | Panetolikos 7%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.45 | Draw 4.35 | Panetolikos 14.29. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (69%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 40% | Panetolikos 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 69% | Draw 23% | Panetolikos 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 45% | xG PAOK 2.14 / Panetolikos 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.108 / def 0.677 | Panetolikos attack 0.831 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: PAOK (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Panetolikos xG
45%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Panetolikos kick off?
PAOK vs Panetolikos kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Panetolikos?
PAOK 2 - 1 Panetolikos.
Where is PAOK vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Panetolikos part of?
PAOK vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 69% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 7% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both PAOK and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Panetolikos?
Record (4 meetings): PAOK 4W | Draws 0 | Panetolikos 0W.
What form are PAOK and Panetolikos in?
PAOK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Panetolikos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAOK's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.83x) against PAOK's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 3-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
69%
1.44
23%
4.29
7%
13.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.78
0.65
Panetolikos xG
1.44
69%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
13.59
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
12%
8.47
Win to Nil
36%
2.75
1%
115.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are PAOK and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for PAOK and 0.65 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Panetolikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAOK's recent record stands at 23W 11D 9L from 43 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 23L across 43 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 1.02 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panetolikos heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 13W 4D 4L from 21 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 4W 5D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.88 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 23W 11D 9L in their last 43 games (1.86 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 8W 12D 23L in their last 43 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Panetolikos away?
PAOK's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.05 PPG; Panetolikos away: 0.81 PPG.
Have PAOK or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 0-3 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
PAOK
1
Draws
0
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 9, Panetolikos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Panetolikos 0-3 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Panetolikos?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 33%, Panetolikos 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (PAOK) and 52% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Panetolikos in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of PAOK's recent matches and 57% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of PAOK's recent games and 52% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Panetolikos tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Panetolikos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Panetolikos 2-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.14 xG and Panetolikos 0.65 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.11 / defence 0.68 against Panetolikos attack 0.83 / defence 1.27, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 69% | Draw 23% | Panetolikos 7%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 51%, Panetolikos 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Panetolikos's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.