Lamia 3-3 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias plays host to Lamia versus Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Lamia (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Lamia are significantly better at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias than their overall form suggests.
Atromitos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Atromitos have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Lamia, 1.00 for Atromitos — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lamia, 1 for Atromitos and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Lamia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lamia — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Atromitos — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 43% versus Atromitos 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamia 43% | Atromitos 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.73 xG and Atromitos 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.963 / defence 1.009 | Atromitos attack 0.970 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.144. Data: 37 Lamia games / 37 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 48% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 21%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Atromitos 4.76. Lamia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamia as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 50% | Atromitos 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 48% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Lamia 1.73 / Atromitos 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.963 / def 1.009 | Atromitos attack 0.970 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Lamia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Atromitos xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Atromitos kick off?
Lamia vs Atromitos kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Atromitos?
Lamia 3 - 3 Atromitos.
Where is Lamia vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Atromitos part of?
Lamia vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 48% chance of winning, Atromitos a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Lamia and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Atromitos?
Record (6 meetings): Lamia 1W | Draws 4 | Atromitos 1W.
What form are Lamia and Atromitos in?
Lamia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lamia's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.97x) against Lamia's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
48%
2.07
30%
3.29
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.85
1.12
Atromitos xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
4%
26.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Lamia and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Lamia and 1.12 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lamia's recent record stands at 9W 17D 18L from 44 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 11W 15D 18L across 44 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Lamia against 1.09 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lamia have managed 7W 6D 8L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 2W 6D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atromitos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lamia are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.02 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 9W 17D 18L in their last 44 games (1.00 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 11W 15D 18L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Atromitos away?
Lamia's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.29 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Atromitos go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won 0-3 on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamia have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
5
Draws
4
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Atromitos have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Lamia 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 48%, Atromitos 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lamia) and 38% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 29% of games; Atromitos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Lamia's recent matches and 57% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lamia's recent games and 38% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Atromitos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamia and Atromitos share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 12, as Lamia and Atromitos drew 3-3 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.73 xG and Atromitos 1.12 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lamia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atromitos outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.96 / defence 1.01 against Atromitos attack 0.97 / defence 1.19, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 48% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 21%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 43%, Atromitos 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Atromitos's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 1.00 PPG, Atromitos 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.