Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus host OFI at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 March 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 7W 3D 0L at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Olympiakos Piraeus are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Olympiakos Piraeus register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, OFI in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Olympiakos Piraeus hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for OFI, with 0 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 2–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The historical record gives Olympiakos Piraeus a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play and half-time data (58 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
OFI in-play and half-time data (58 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 53% versus OFI 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 57% | OFI 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.61 xG and OFI 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.188 / defence 0.847 | OFI attack 1.158 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.147. Data: 51 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 51 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 49% | Draw 25% | OFI 27%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | OFI 3.70. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% | OFI 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Mar 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 49% | Draw 25% | OFI 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.61 / OFI 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.188 / def 0.847 | OFI attack 1.158 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.12
OFI xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 0 OFI.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 49% chance of winning, OFI a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI?
Record (6 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 6W | Draws 0 | OFI 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. OFI (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.19x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
49%
2.05
25%
4.05
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.74
1.12
OFI xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
5%
18.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.12 for OFI, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 58 games, going 37W 12D 9L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.22 PPG from 58 outings (17W 20D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 19W 5D 3L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.30 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 0.96 points per game from 27 outings (5W 11D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.26 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 37W 12D 9L in their last 58 games (2.12 PPG), while OFI have gone 17W 20D 21L in their last 58 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or OFI away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.30 PPG; OFI away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, OFI in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting OFI specifically: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
Draws
1
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, OFI have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 67%, OFI 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 59% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; OFI in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play OFI?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Olympiakos Piraeus's games and 56% of OFI's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 59% of OFI's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, OFI in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out OFI 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat OFI 1-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.61 xG and OFI 1.12 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. OFI landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.19 / defence 0.85 against OFI attack 1.16 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 49% | Draw 25% | OFI 27%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 57%, OFI 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (58 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
OFI's trading profile (58 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.