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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Iraklis 1908 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Iraklis 1908 make the trip to Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Olympiakos Piraeus haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Olympiakos Piraeus at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.52 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.975 / defence 0.870 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 0 Iraklis 1908 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 53% | Draw 30% | Iraklis 1908 18%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Iraklis 1908 5.56. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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