Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Aris Thessalonikis take on Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis's home record at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for Aris Thessalonikis, 2.10 for Olympiakos Piraeus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Olympiakos Piraeus hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 51% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 41% | Olympiakos Piraeus 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.06 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.004 / defence 1.076 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.025 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 0.976. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 Aris Thessalonikis games / 32 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 32% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 32%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 32% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.06 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.004 / def 1.076 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.025 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.439 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 32% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (10 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 2W | Draws 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus 5W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (1.00) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.02x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.17
36%
2.78
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.13
1.08
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.17
32%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.08 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 15W 14D 10L from 39 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 5L across 39 games — 2.10 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aris Thessalonikis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 7W 10D 2L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 11W 6D 2L across 19 trips, a 2.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.49 scored and 0.49 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 15W 14D 10L in their last 39 games (1.51 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 24W 10D 5L in their last 39 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.63 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.05 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 27 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 53%, Olympiakos Piraeus 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Aris Thessalonikis and 32% for Olympiakos Piraeus.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 58%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 32% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.