Panetolikos vs Volos NFC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Panetolikos at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Volos NFC travel to Panetolikos Stadium to take on Panetolikos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Panetolikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panetolikos's home record at Panetolikos Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC's away record: 0W 0D 10L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Panetolikos carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Panetolikos register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Volos NFC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Panetolikos, 5 for Volos NFC and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Volos NFC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 50% versus Volos NFC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 47% | Volos NFC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.80 xG and Volos NFC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 1.131 / defence 0.952 | Volos NFC attack 0.841 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. Data: 28 Panetolikos games / 28 Volos NFC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 59% | Draw 26% | Volos NFC 15%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Volos NFC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Panetolikos (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Volos NFC lead the H2H ledger, but Panetolikos carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Panetolikos 70% | Volos NFC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 59% | Draw 26% | Volos NFC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Panetolikos 1.80 / Volos NFC 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 1.131 / def 0.952 | Volos NFC attack 0.841 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Volos NFC xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Panetolikos vs Volos NFC is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Panetolikos Stadium.
Where is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC part of?
Panetolikos vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 59% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Panetolikos and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
Record (10 meetings): Panetolikos 3W | Draws 2 | Volos NFC 5W.
What form are Panetolikos and Volos NFC in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Panetolikos's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
59%
1.68
26%
3.83
15%
6.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.60
0.80
Volos NFC xG
1.68
59%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
6.89
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
2%
41.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.80 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panetolikos come into this having played 34 games, going 10W 8D 16L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Panetolikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Volos NFC sit at 0.97 PPG from 34 outings (9W 6D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.12 PPG, Volos NFC on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Panetolikos's home form reads 6W 3D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Volos NFC have taken 0.71 points per game from 17 outings (4W 0D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panetolikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Panetolikos are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.00 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 10W 8D 16L in their last 34 games (1.12 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 9W 6D 19L in their last 34 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Volos NFC away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.24 PPG; Volos NFC away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panetolikos and Volos NFC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Volos NFC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panetolikos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
2
Draws
5
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 3, Volos NFC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Volos NFC 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 53%, Volos NFC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Panetolikos) and 53% (Volos NFC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 35% of games; Volos NFC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 47% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Panetolikos's matches and 53% of Volos NFC's.
Do Panetolikos and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.