Levadiakos 1-1 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panetolikos at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Panetolikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panetolikos make the trip to Stadio Levadias to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Levadias, Levadiakos have gone 1W 3D 2L this season (6 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Panetolikos are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Levadiakos lead 0W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 67% versus Panetolikos 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 58% | Panetolikos 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.98 xG and Panetolikos 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.937 / defence 1.288 | Panetolikos attack 0.902 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.242. Data: 12 Levadiakos games / 38 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 25% | Draw 28% | Panetolikos 47%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Panetolikos 2.13. Panetolikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panetolikos as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 50% | Panetolikos 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 25% | Draw 28% | Panetolikos 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Levadiakos 0.98 / Panetolikos 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.937 / def 1.288 | Panetolikos attack 0.902 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Panetolikos xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Panetolikos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Panetolikos kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Panetolikos?
Levadiakos 1 - 1 Panetolikos.
Where is Levadiakos vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Panetolikos part of?
Levadiakos vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 25% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Levadiakos and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panetolikos?
Record (3 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 3 | Panetolikos 0W.
What form are Levadiakos and Panetolikos in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Panetolikos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Levadiakos vs Panetolikos?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 0.94x the league average against Panetolikos's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.90x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 12/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
25%
4.02
28%
3.54
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.42
1.44
Panetolikos xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
6%
16.98
18%
5.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.8 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.44 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 1W 6D 5L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos's form line: 5W 3D 4L from 12 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Panetolikos are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levadiakos.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panetolikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levadiakos are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.08 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 1W 6D 5L in their last 12 games (0.75 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Panetolikos away?
Panetolikos's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.00 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Panetolikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Panetolikos in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Levadiakos have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 6-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Levadiakos
5
Draws
1
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panetolikos?
From 9 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 3, Panetolikos have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Panetolikos 1-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Panetolikos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 60%, Panetolikos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Levadiakos) and 20% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos in 40%; Levadiakos have failed to score in 40% of games; Panetolikos in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 40% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Levadiakos's recent games and 20% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos and Panetolikos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos and Panetolikos finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.98 xG and Panetolikos 1.44 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.94 / defence 1.29 against Panetolikos attack 0.90 / defence 0.85, drawn from 12/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 25% | Draw 28% | Panetolikos 47%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 58%, Panetolikos 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Panetolikos arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Levadiakos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.