OFI 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024, 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, OFI have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (OFI) versus 1.80 (Olympiakos Piraeus). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better historical record — 6 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for OFI.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 0–4 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

OFI in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 58% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 56% | Olympiakos Piraeus 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.24 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.052 / defence 1.182 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.128 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.216. Data: 38 OFI games / 38 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: OFI 28% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.22. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 70% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% BTTS from recent games.

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