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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis finished level at 1-1 at Levadia Stadium, Conference League Group - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.61 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.91 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.31 / defence 1.08 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.79 / defence 0.94, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 52% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 19%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 59%, Aris Thessalonikis 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Levadiakos's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.55 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights