Larisa 0-1 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Larisa at 38%, yet in-form Panserraikos provide a compelling counter-argument — this Larisa vs Panserraikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panserraikos make the trip to AEL FC Arena to face Larisa in Super League 1 (Relegation Group - 5). The match kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Larisa have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Larisa's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Larisa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Panserraikos (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Panserraikos's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Panserraikos are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Larisa, 0 for Panserraikos and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 24 Jan 2026, ended Larisa 1–0 Panserraikos — a Larisa win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Larisa half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Panserraikos half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 57% versus Panserraikos 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 40% | Panserraikos 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 1.25 xG and Panserraikos 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.777 / defence 1.259 | Panserraikos attack 0.796 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Larisa's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Panserraikos's defence rating of 1.233 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Larisa's projected output up. Panserraikos's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Larisa's defence rating of 1.259 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Panserraikos's projected output up. Data: built from Larisa's last 26 games and Panserraikos's last 52.
Result probabilities: Larisa 38% | Draw 32% | Panserraikos 29%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 2.61 | Draw 3.10 | Panserraikos 3.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Larisa at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Panserraikos (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Larisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Larisa 70% (last 10 home games) | Panserraikos 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Larisa vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 5 | Venue: AEL FC Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Larisa 38% | Draw 32% | Panserraikos 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Larisa 1.25 / Panserraikos 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Larisa attack 0.777 / def 1.259 | Panserraikos attack 0.796 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Larisa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Larisa xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Panserraikos xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Larisa vs Panserraikos FAQs
What time does Larisa vs Panserraikos kick off?
Larisa vs Panserraikos kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at AEL FC Arena.
What was the final score in Larisa vs Panserraikos?
Larisa 0 - 1 Panserraikos.
Where is Larisa vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at AEL FC Arena.
What competition is Larisa vs Panserraikos part of?
Larisa vs Panserraikos is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Group - 5) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Larisa vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Larisa a 38% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Larisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Larisa vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Larisa and Panserraikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Larisa vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Larisa's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Panserraikos's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Panserraikos's attack (0.80x) against Larisa's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Larisa's last 26 games and Panserraikos's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Larisa Win
38%
2.61
32%
3.10
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Larisa xG
Total xG
2.32
1.07
Panserraikos xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Larisa vs Panserraikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Larisa vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Larisa and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Larisa and 1.07 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Larisa vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Larisa have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 4W 12D 14L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Panserraikos's form line: 6W 6D 18L from 30 games, 0.80 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Larisa against 0.80 for Panserraikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Larisa have posted 0.87 PPG from their last 15 home games (2W 7D 6L).
On the road, Panserraikos have gone 3W 3D 9L from their last 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Larisa are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 0.70 scored and 2.07 conceded.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Larisa
Current Season
Panserraikos
Current Season
Larisa (Home) vs Panserraikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Larisa
Current Season
Panserraikos
Current Season
❓ Larisa vs Panserraikos Form FAQs
What form are Larisa and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Larisa have gone 4W 12D 14L in their last 30 games (0.80 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 6W 6D 18L in their last 30 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Larisa at home or Panserraikos away?
Larisa's home record (0.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Larisa at home: 0.87 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Larisa and Panserraikos, the earliest from October 2025. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Larisa have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Larisa
1
Draws
1
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Larisa vs Panserraikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Panserraikos?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Larisa have won 2, Panserraikos have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Larisa and Panserraikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Panserraikos 1-1 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between Larisa and Panserraikos?
Larisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Larisa 67%, Panserraikos 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Larisa) and 67% (Panserraikos).
On the defensive side: Panserraikos in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Larisa home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Larisa vs Panserraikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Larisa and Panserraikos matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Larisa's games and 47% of Panserraikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Larisa and Panserraikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Larisa's recent games and 67% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Larisa and Panserraikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Larisa's recent matches and 80% of Panserraikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panserraikos defy the odds to beat Larisa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos beat Larisa 0-1 at AEL FC Arena, Relegation Group - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.25 xG and Panserraikos 1.07 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Larisa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.78 / defence 1.26 against Panserraikos attack 0.80 / defence 1.23, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Larisa 38% | Draw 32% | Panserraikos 29%, with Larisa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Panserraikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 40%, Panserraikos 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Larisa's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panserraikos's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Larisa 0.80 PPG, Panserraikos 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Larisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Panserraikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.