🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Kifisia take on Panetolikos.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Group - 5 sees Panetolikos travel to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis to take on Kifisia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Kifisia stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Kifisia at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Panetolikos have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Kifisia) versus 1.20 (Panetolikos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Panetolikos, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Kifisia.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Panetolikos winning.

It is worth noting that Panetolikos have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Kifisia in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kifisia 63% versus Panetolikos 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 53% | Panetolikos 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 1.02 xG and Panetolikos 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.889 / defence 1.195 | Panetolikos attack 0.818 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Data: 26 Kifisia games / 52 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kifisia 32% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 33%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Panetolikos 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Kifisia 40% | Panetolikos 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights