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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Larisa vs Levadiakos encounter.

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Analysis

Levadiakos make the trip to AEL FC Arena to face Larisa in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 November 2025 at 15:30 UTC.

Form

Larisa (all games): 1W 4D 3L across 8 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.88 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 1.62 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at AEL FC Arena, Larisa have gone 0W 2D 2L this season (4 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Levadiakos have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Levadiakos have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Levadiakos are 0.92 PPG clear of Larisa in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.80 vs 0.88). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Larisa have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Levadiakos in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading Data

Larisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.

Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 62%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Larisa 62% and Levadiakos 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 25% | Levadiakos 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 1.25 xG and Levadiakos 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.774 / defence 1.420 | Levadiakos attack 1.155 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.253. Larisa's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Larisa games / 34 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Larisa 22% | Draw 22% | Levadiakos 55%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Levadiakos 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Levadiakos are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Larisa 75% | Levadiakos 60% BTTS from recent games.

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