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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Levadia Stadium plays host to Levadiakos versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 26 October 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Levadiakos (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Levadia Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Levadiakos, 1.60 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Levadiakos, 2 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 4–1 with Levadiakos winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 59% versus Aris Thessalonikis 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 56% | Aris Thessalonikis 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 2.21 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.504 / defence 0.814 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.830 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.327. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.504 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 Levadiakos games / 33 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 67% | Draw 20% | Aris Thessalonikis 14%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Aris Thessalonikis 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 50%.

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