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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Aris Thessalonikis.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 November 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Olympiakos Piraeus at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.

Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Olympiakos Piraeus. A 0.90 PPG lead over Aris Thessalonikis (2.50 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Olympiakos Piraeus lead 4W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.

Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 45% versus Aris Thessalonikis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Olympiakos Piraeus 45% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.83 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.381 / defence 0.767 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.858 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.250. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.381 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 34 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Draw 24% | Aris Thessalonikis 16%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Aris Thessalonikis 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 60%.

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