Larisa 1-1 Kifisia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Larisa at 40%, yet in-form Kifisia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Larisa vs Kifisia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

Kifisia travel to AEL FC Arena to take on Larisa in Super League 1 (Relegation Group - 4). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Larisa have gone 0W 4D 6L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Larisa's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Larisa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Kifisia stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Kifisia have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kifisia are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Larisa's games and 60% of Kifisia's (from Larisa's last 10 home games and Kifisia's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Larisa, 0 for Kifisia and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Jan 2026, ended Larisa 1–1 Kifisia — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Larisa in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Kifisia in-play and half-time data (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 55% versus Kifisia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 41% | Kifisia 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 1.35 xG and Kifisia 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.776 / defence 1.262 | Kifisia attack 0.830 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.064. Larisa's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.35. Kifisia's defence rating of 1.339 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Larisa's projected output up. Larisa's defence rating of 1.262 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kifisia's projected output up. Data: built from Larisa's last 26 games and Kifisia's last 26.

Result probabilities: Larisa 40% | Draw 31% | Kifisia 29%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 2.49 | Draw 3.22 | Kifisia 3.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Larisa at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kifisia (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Larisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Larisa 60% (last 10 home games) | Kifisia 60% (last 10 away games).

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