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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Larisa encounter.

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Full Analysis

Levadia Stadium plays host to Levadiakos versus Larisa in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 13 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Levadiakos have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Levadiakos have posted 6W 1D 3L at Levadia Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Larisa's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Larisa have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Levadiakos's favour (1.80 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Levadiakos lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Levadiakos winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.

Larisa half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Levadiakos 69% and Larisa 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 62% | Larisa 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 2.59 xG and Larisa 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.477 / defence 1.085 | Larisa attack 0.817 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.231. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.477 — their λ of 2.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Levadiakos games / 13 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 70% | Draw 17% | Larisa 14%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Larisa 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (70%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.59 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 70% | Larisa 50% BTTS from recent games.

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