🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Larisa defy the odds to beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Larisa beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 0.93 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.35 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Aris Thessalonikis landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.71 / defence 1.31 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 16/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Larisa 25% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 46%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Larisa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 44%, Aris Thessalonikis 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Larisa's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Larisa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Larisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights