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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Larisa and AEK Athens FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Larisa and AEK Athens FC finished level at 1-1 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 0.78 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.81 / defence 1.12 against AEK Athens FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.80, drawn from 3/29 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Larisa 24% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 47%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 33%, AEK Athens FC 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Larisa's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AEK Athens FC shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights