Larisa 1-1 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Larisa vs AEK Athens FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to AEL FC Arena to face Larisa in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 September 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Larisa (all games): 0W 2D 1L across 3 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Larisa have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.67 PPG for Larisa against 1.00 for AEK Athens FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Larisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Larisa 67% | AEK Athens FC 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Larisa 33% | AEK Athens FC 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 0.78 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.814 / defence 1.122 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.993 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.100. AEK Athens FC's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 3 Larisa games / 29 AEK Athens FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Larisa 24% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | AEK Athens FC 2.13. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Larisa 67% | AEK Athens FC 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Larisa vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: AEL FC Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Larisa 24% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Larisa 0.78 / AEK Athens FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Larisa attack 0.814 / def 1.122 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.993 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Larisa xG
Expected Goals
1.23
AEK Athens FC xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Larisa vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Larisa vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at AEL FC Arena.
What was the final score in Larisa vs AEK Athens FC?
Larisa 1 - 1 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Larisa vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at AEL FC Arena.
What competition is Larisa vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Larisa vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Larisa vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Larisa a 24% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Larisa vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Larisa and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Larisa vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and AEK Athens FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Larisa and AEK Athens FC in?
Larisa (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-D. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Larisa's attack at 0.81x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (0.99x) against Larisa's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
The sample (3/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
24%
4.23
30%
3.36
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Larisa xG
Total xG
2.01
1.23
AEK Athens FC xG
4.23
24%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
7%
14.41
21%
4.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 16.5 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Larisa vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Larisa and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Larisa and 1.23 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Larisa vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Larisa have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 0W 2D 1L record — L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Larisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AEK Athens FC's form line: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W-W. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, AEK Athens FC are the form team by 2.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Larisa.
Attack vs Defence
Larisa are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.33 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Larisa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; AEK Athens FC in 0%.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Larisa
Early Season
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Larisa and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Larisa have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Larisa or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Larisa have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Larisa
1
Draws
1
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and AEK Athens FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Larisa have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Larisa and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when AEK Athens FC 1-0 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between Larisa and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Larisa see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 67% (Larisa) and 0% (AEK Athens FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Larisa and 0% for AEK Athens FC.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC in 100%; Larisa have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Larisa home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Larisa play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Larisa's recent matches and 0% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Larisa vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Larisa's recent games and 0% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Larisa and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Larisa have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Larisa and AEK Athens FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Larisa and AEK Athens FC finished level at 1-1 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 0.78 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.81 / defence 1.12 against AEK Athens FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.80, drawn from 3/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Larisa 24% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 47%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 33%, AEK Athens FC 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Larisa's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AEK Athens FC shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.