Aris Thessalonikis 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Aris Thessalonikis face Olympiakos Piraeus.

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Analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1 (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Sunday 21 January 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Aris Thessalonikis's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Olympiakos Piraeus's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Aris Thessalonikis, 1.70 for Olympiakos Piraeus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 1 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2023, ended Aris Thessalonikis 1–4 Olympiakos Piraeus — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 46% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 57% | Olympiakos Piraeus 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.18 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.024 / defence 0.817 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.985 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.287. Olympiakos Piraeus bring a tight defence (rating 0.733, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Aris Thessalonikis's projected output down. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 44 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 44.

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 38% | Draw 31% | Olympiakos Piraeus 31%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.62 | Draw 3.22 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 50% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% (last 10 away games).

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