Kifisia 0-0 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kifisia at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kifisia face Asteras Tripolis.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Kifisia welcome Asteras Tripolis to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis in Super League 1 (Relegation Group - 3). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Kifisia — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Kifisia have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Asteras Tripolis have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Asteras Tripolis away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Kifisia) versus 0.80 (Asteras Tripolis). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Kifisia, 1 for Asteras Tripolis and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Kifisia 0–0 Asteras Tripolis — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kifisia trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Asteras Tripolis trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kifisia 64% versus Asteras Tripolis 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 57% | Asteras Tripolis 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 1.41 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.889 / defence 1.197 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.757 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.064. Asteras Tripolis's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kifisia's projected output up. Asteras Tripolis's attack rating of 0.757 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Kifisia's last 26 games and Asteras Tripolis's last 52.
Result probabilities: Kifisia 45% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 24%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 2.22 | Draw 3.22 | Asteras Tripolis 4.20. Kifisia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kifisia at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kifisia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Kifisia's last 10 home games and Asteras Tripolis's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kifisia 50% (last 10 home games) | Asteras Tripolis 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 3 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 45% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Kifisia 1.41 / Asteras Tripolis 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 0.889 / def 1.197 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.757 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Kifisia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Asteras Tripolis xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis FAQs
What time does Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What was the final score in Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Kifisia 0 - 0 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What competition is Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Group - 3) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 45% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kifisia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kifisia's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Asteras Tripolis's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus Kifisia's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kifisia's last 26 games and Asteras Tripolis's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kifisia Win
45%
2.22
31%
3.22
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Kifisia xG
Total xG
2.37
0.96
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
6%
17.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Kifisia and 0.96 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kifisia's recent record stands at 6W 10D 12L from 28 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Asteras Tripolis, meanwhile, have gone 4W 9D 15L across 28 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kifisia on 1.00 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kifisia have managed 4W 4D 6L from their last 14 home games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Asteras Tripolis's away record stands at 1W 4D 9L across their last 14 away games, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kifisia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kifisia are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.89 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
Kifisia (Home) vs Asteras Tripolis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kifisia
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
❓ Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis Form FAQs
What form are Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 6W 10D 12L in their last 28 games (1.00 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 4W 9D 15L in their last 28 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Kifisia's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 1.14 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Kifisia's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Kifisia
5
Draws
1
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Kifisia have won 1, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: Asteras Tripolis 0-0 Kifisia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kifisia 57%, Asteras Tripolis 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kifisia) and 36% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Kifisia's recent matches and 36% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kifisia's recent games and 36% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Kifisia's recent matches and 71% of Asteras Tripolis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kifisia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Relegation Group - 3, as Kifisia and Asteras Tripolis drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.41 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.96 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kifisia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Asteras Tripolis landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.89 / defence 1.20 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.76 / defence 1.21, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kifisia 45% | Draw 31% | Asteras Tripolis 24%, with Kifisia to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 57%, Asteras Tripolis 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kifisia's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kifisia 1.00 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kifisia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.