Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Iraklis 1908 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus Iraklis 1908 in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 19 September 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this season.
Iraklis 1908's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Iraklis 1908 have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Aris Thessalonikis's favour (2.20 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Iraklis 1908 — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 50% versus Iraklis 1908 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 75% | Iraklis 1908 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.84 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.011 / defence 1.001 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.801 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 0.917. Iraklis 1908 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Aris Thessalonikis games / 4 Iraklis 1908 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 61% | Draw 28% | Iraklis 1908 11%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.64 | Draw 3.57 | Iraklis 1908 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Aris Thessalonikis (61%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Iraklis 1908 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908 | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 61% | Draw 28% | Iraklis 1908 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.84 / Iraklis 1908 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.011 / def 1.001 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.801 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.490 / away 0.917 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Iraklis 1908 xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908 kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908 kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908?
Aris Thessalonikis 0 - 0 Iraklis 1908.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908 being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908 part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 61% chance of winning, Iraklis 1908 a 11% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Iraklis 1908 will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Iraklis 1908?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Iraklis 1908 in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (1.01) and Iraklis 1908's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Iraklis 1908's attack (0.80x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 30/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
61%
1.65
28%
3.56
11%
8.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.58
0.73
Iraklis 1908 xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
8.94
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
2%
56.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 10.3 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Iraklis 1908 expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.73 for Iraklis 1908, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Aris Thessalonikis come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 0D 2L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Iraklis 1908 sit at 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L), a run that reads L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Iraklis 1908 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Iraklis 1908 are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 4 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Iraklis 1908
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Iraklis 1908 in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Iraklis 1908 have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Aris Thessalonikis
1
Draws
0
Iraklis 1908
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Iraklis 1908?
From 1 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 0, Iraklis 1908 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Iraklis 1908 last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Iraklis 1908.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Iraklis 1908 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 50%, Iraklis 1908 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 25% (Iraklis 1908).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 50% of games; Iraklis 1908 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Iraklis 1908 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Iraklis 1908?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 50% of Iraklis 1908's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 25% of Iraklis 1908's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Iraklis 1908 tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Iraklis 1908 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Aris Thessalonikis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis and Iraklis 1908 finished level at 0-0 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.84 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.73 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Iraklis 1908 attack 0.80 / defence 1.23, drawn from 30/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 61% | Draw 28% | Iraklis 1908 11%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 61%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 75%, Iraklis 1908 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Iraklis 1908's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aris Thessalonikis managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Iraklis 1908 conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.