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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus Iraklis 1908 in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Aris Thessalonikis haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Aris Thessalonikis at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.37 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.880 / defence 0.968 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 Aris Thessalonikis games / 0 Iraklis 1908 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 46% | Draw 32% | Iraklis 1908 22%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Iraklis 1908 4.55. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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